"Do Commercial Property Taxes Affect Business Micro-Location Decisions?"
Forthcoming at The Accounting Review, March 2027, https://doi.org/10.2308/TAR-2025-0248
Abstract: This study examines how commercial property taxes shape business micro-location decisions, that is, where within counties firms choose to locate. Using establishment-level data for millions of U.S. businesses and a spatial discontinuity design at county borders, we isolate the effect of property-tax differentials while holding other local characteristics constant. We find that firms disproportionately locate on the lower-tax side of borders, especially where tax differentials are largest, showing a 6-7 percent reallocation of establishments in high-differential areas. The effect is roughly twice as strong for low-foot-traffic businesses, consistent with greater flexibility in site choice. To validate the mechanism, we survey U.S. mayors and find that those in high-tax or high-differential regions overwhelmingly view property taxes as important to business location decisions. Together, the results reveal that even modest local tax differences can meaningfully distort the spatial distribution of economic activity.